Chapter 9, Part A

Hypothesis Testing
 Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses
 Type I and Type II Errors
 Population Mean:  Known
 Population Mean:  Unknown
 Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses

 Hypothesis testing can be used to determine whether

a statement about the value of a population parameter
should or should not be rejected.
 The null hypothesis, denoted by H0 , is a tentative
assumption about a population parameter.
 The alternative hypothesis, denoted by Ha, is the
opposite of what is stated in the null hypothesis.
 The alternative hypothesis is what the test is
attempting to establish.
These are established using sample study.
 Important points

 Context specified
 Sample selection and based conclusion

 Qs to be asked:
 What is the purpose of collecting the sample?
 Conclusions hoping to make?

 Identification of H0 and Ha – anyone to be framed

first
 Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses

 Ha as a Testing of Research Hypotheses

• formulating Ha first
• The research hypothesis should be expressed as
the alternative hypothesis.
• The conclusion that the research hypothesis is true
comes from sample data that contradict the null
hypothesis.
Eg: Fuel efficient
 When new methods are involved…

 Consider a particular automobile that currently attains a fuel efficiency

of 24 miles per gallon in city driving. A product research group has
developed a new fuel injection system designed to increase the miles-
per-gallon rating. The group will run controlled tests with the new fuel
injection system looking for statistical support for the conclusion that
the new fuel injection system provides more miles per gallon than the
current system.

 Several new fuel injection units will be manufactured, installed in test

automobiles, and subjected to research-controlled driving conditions.
The sample mean miles per gallon for these automobiles will be
computed and used in a hypothesis test to determine if it can be
concluded that the new system provides more than 24 miles per gallon.
Hypothesis Test: Null and Alternate
• Example:
A new teaching method is developed that is
believed to be better than the current method.
• Alternative Hypothesis:
The new teaching method is better.
• Null Hypothesis:
The new method is no better than the old method.
 Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses

 Testing the Validity of a Claim

• Manufacturers’ claims are usually given the benefit
of the doubt and stated as the null hypothesis.
• The conclusion that the claim is false comes from
sample data that contradict the null hypothesis.
Hypothesis Test: Null and Alternate
• Example:
The label on a soft drink bottle states that it
contains at least 67.6 fluid ounces.
• Null Hypothesis:
The label is correct.  > 67.6 ounces.
• Alternative Hypothesis:
The label is incorrect.  < 67.6 ounces.

Benefit of doubt given to the manufacturer

Hypothesis Test: Null and Alternate
• Example:
The label on a soft drink bottle states that it
contains 67.6 fluid ounces.
• Null Hypothesis:
The bottle content is correct.  = 67.6 ounces.
• Alternative Hypothesis:
The bottle content is incorrect.  ≠ 67.6 ounces.
 Summary of Forms for Null and Alternative
Hypotheses about a Population Mean
 The equality part of the hypotheses always appears
in the null hypothesis.
 In general, a hypothesis test about the value of a
population mean must take one of the following
three forms (where 0 is the hypothesized value of
the population mean).

H 0:   0 H 0:   0 H 0:   0
H a:   0 H a:   0 H a:   0

One-tailed One-tailed Two-tailed

(lower-tail) (upper-tail)

Ha – what to establish ?
 Examples
 The manager of the Danvers-Hilton Resort Hotel stated that the mean
guest bill for a weekend is $600 or less. A member of the hotel’s
accounting staff noticed that the total charges for guest bills have been
increasing in recent months. The accountant will use a sample of future
weekend guest bills to test the manager’s claim. a. Which form of the
hypotheses should be used to test the manager’s claim? Explain.

 b. What conclusion is appropriate when H0 cannot be rejected?

 c. What conclusion is appropriate when H0 can be rejected?

 1. a. H0: µ<= 600 Manager’s claim.

 Ha: µ > 600
 b. We are not able to conclude that the manager’s claim is wrong.
 c. The manager’s claim can be rejected. We can conclude that µ > 600.
 Examples
 The manager of an automobile dealership is considering a new bonus plan
designed to increase sales volume. Currently, the mean sales volume is 14
automobiles per month. The manager wants to conduct a research study to
see whether the new bonus plan increases sales volume. To collect data on
the plan, a sample of sales personnel will be allowed to sell under the new
bonus plan for a one-month period.
 a. Develop the null and alternative hypotheses most appropriate for this
situation.
 b. Comment on the conclusion when H0 cannot be rejected.
 c. Comment on the conclusion when H0 can be rejected.

 a. H0: µ <=14
 Ha: µ > 14 Research hypothesis
 b. There is no statistical evidence that the new bonus plan increases sales
volume.
 c. The research hypothesis that µ > 14 is supported. We can conclude that
the new bonus plan increases the mean sales volume.
 Examples
 A production line operation is designed to fill cartons with laundry detergent
to a mean weight of 32 ounces. A sample of cartons is periodically selected
and weighed to determine whether underfilling or overfilling is occurring. If
the sample data lead to a conclusion of underfilling or overfilling, the
production line will be shut down and adjusted to obtain proper filling.
 a. Formulate the null and alternative hypotheses that will help in deciding
whether to shut down and adjust the production line.
 b. Comment on the conclusion and the decision when H0 cannot be rejected.
 c. Comment on the conclusion and the decision when H0 can be rejected.

 a. H0: µ = 32 Specified filling weight

 Ha: µ ≠ 32 Overfilling or underfilling exists

 b. There is no evidence that the production line is not operating properly. Allow the
production process to continue.

 c. Conclude µ ≠ 32 and that overfilling or underfilling exists. Shut down and adjust the
production line.
 Null and Alternative Hypotheses

 Example: Metro EMS

A major west coast city provides
one of the most comprehensive
emergency medical services in
the world.
Operating in a multiple
hospital system with
approximately 20 mobile medical
units, the service goal is to respond to medical
emergencies with a mean time of 12 minutes or less.
 Null and Alternative Hypotheses

 Example: Metro EMS

The director of medical services
wants to formulate a hypothesis
test that could use a sample of
emergency response times to
determine whether or not the
service goal of 12 minutes or less
is being achieved.
 Null and Alternative Hypotheses

H0:  The emergency service is meeting

the response goal; no follow-up
action is necessary.

Ha: The emergency service is not

meeting the response goal;
appropriate follow-up action is
necessary.
where:  = mean response time for the population
of medical emergency requests
 Type I Error

 Because hypothesis tests are based on sample data,

we must allow for the possibility of errors.
 A Type I error is rejecting H when it is true.
0

 The probability of making a Type I error when the

null hypothesis is true as an equality is called the
level of significance.
 Applications of hypothesis testing that only control
the Type I error are often called significance tests.

The Greek symbol α (alpha) is used to denote the level of

significance, and common choices for α are .05 and .01.
 Null and Alternative Hypotheses

H0:  The emergency service is meeting

the response goal; no follow-up
action is necessary.

Ha: The emergency service is not

meeting the response goal;
appropriate follow-up action is
necessary.
where:  = mean response time for the population
of medical emergency requests

Level of sig. Is the prob of rejecting H0: When : 

 Type I error

 the person responsible for the hypothesis test specifies the level of
significance.

 By selecting α , that person is controlling the probability of making a Type I

error.

 If the cost of making a Type I error is high, small values of α are preferred.

 If the cost of making a Type I error is not too high, larger values of α are
typically used.
 Type II Error

 A Type II error is accepting H0 when it is false.

 It is difficult to control for the probability of making
a Type II error.
 Statisticians avoid the risk of making a Type II
error by using “do not reject H0” and not “accept H0”.
 Understanding Type II error

 Using the statement “do not reject H0” carries the

recommendation to withhold both judgment and action.
 In effect, by not directly accepting H0, the statistician avoids
the risk of making a Type II error.
 Whenever the probability of making a Type II error has not
been determined and controlled, we will not make the
statement “accept H0.”
 In such cases, only two conclusions are possible: do not
reject H0 or reject H0
 Most applications of hypothesis testing control for the
probability of making a Type I error, they do not always
control for the probability of making a Type II error.
 Hence, if we decide to accept H0, we cannot determine how
confident we can be with that decision.
 Type I and Type II Errors

Population Condition

H0 True H0 False
Conclusion ( < 12) ( > 12)

Accept H0 Correct
Type II Error
(Conclude  < 12) Decision

Reject H0 Correct
Type I Error Decision
(Conclude  > 12)
 Examples

 Duke Energy reported that the cost of electricity for an efficient home in a
particular neighborhood of Cincinnati, Ohio, was $104 per month ( Home
Energy Report, Duke Energy, March 2012). A researcher believes that the
cost of electricity for a comparable neighborhood in Chicago, Illinois, is
higher. A sample of homes in this Chicago neighborhood will be taken
and the sample mean monthly cost of electricity will be used to test the
following null and alternative hypotheses.

 a. Assume the sample data led to rejection of the null hypothesis. What
would be your conclusion about the cost of electricity in the Chicago
neighborhood?
Conclude that the population mean monthly cost of electricity in the Chicago
neighborhood is greater than $104 and hence higher than in the
comparable neighborhood in Cincinnati.
 b. What is the Type I error in this situation? What are the
consequences of making this error?
The Type I error is rejecting H0 when it is true. This error occurs
if the researcher concludes that the population mean monthly
cost of electricity is greater than $104 in the Chicago
neighborhood when the population mean cost is actually less
than or equal to $104.

 c. What is the Type II error in this situation? What are the

consequences of making this error?
The Type II error is accepting H0 when it is false. This error
occurs if the researcher concludes that the population mean
monthly cost for the Chicago neighborhood is less than or
equal to $104 when it is not.
 Suppose a new production method will be implemented if a hypothesis test
supports the conclusion that the new method reduces the mean operating cost
per hour.
 a. State the appropriate null and alternative hypotheses if the mean cost for the
current production method is $220 per hour.
 b. What is the Type I error in this situation? What are the consequences of
making this error?
 c. What is the Type II error in this situation? What are the consequences of
making this error?

 H0: 220
 Ha:  < 220

 b. Claiming  < 220 when the new method does not lower costs. A mistake
could be implementing the method when it does not help.

 c. Concluding 220 when the method really would lower costs. This could
lead to not implementing a method that would lower costs.
 Hilltop coffee

 At least 3 pounds of coffee

H0: µ>=3

Ha: µ<3
 Do not reject H0
 Reject H0
 Sample study
 n=36 , If mean less than 36
 How much less than 3 pounds must the average be before
declaring difference as significant.
 Level of significance is important – prob. of making a type I error
when the H0 is true as an equality.
 “If the company is meeting its weight specifications at μ = 3, I do not want to
take action against them. But, I am willing to risk a 1% chance of making such
an error.”

Defining alpha :
 From the director’s statement, we set the level of significance for the
hypothesis test at α = .01. Thus, we must design the hypothesis test so that the
probability of making a Type I error when μ =3 is .01.

Calculating the test statistics

σ= .18 known
Normal distribution

how small the test statistics

to reject the null hypothesis?

p- value approach and critical value approach

 p-Value Approach to
One-Tailed Hypothesis Testing
Population Mean: σ Known
 A p-value is a probability that provides a measure
of the evidence against the null hypothesis
provided by the sample.
 The p-value is used to determine if the null
hypothesis should be rejected.
 The smaller the p-value, the more evidence there
is against H0.
 A small p-value indicates the value of the test
statistic is unusual given the assumption that H0
is true.
 Lower-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:
 Known
 p-Value Approach p-Value < ,
so reject H0.

 = .10 Sampling
distribution
x  0
of z 
/ n
p-value


z
z = -z = 0
-1.46 -1.28
 Upper-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:
 Known
 p-Value Approach p-Value < ,
so reject H0.
Sampling
distribution
x  0  = .04
of z 
/ n

p-Value


z
0 z = z=
1.75 2.29
 Critical Value Approach to
One-Tailed Hypothesis Testing
 The test statistic z has a standard normal probability
distribution.
 We can use the standard normal probability
distribution table to find the z-value with an area
of  in the lower (or upper) tail of the distribution.
 The value of the test statistic that established the
boundary of the rejection region is called the
critical value for the test.
 The rejection rule is:
• Lower tail: Reject H if z < -z
0 
• Upper tail: Reject H if z > z
0 
 Lower-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:
 Known
 Critical Value Approach

Sampling
distribution
x  0
of z 
Reject H0 / n


Do Not Reject H0

z
z = 1.28 0
 Upper-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:
 Known
 Critical Value Approach

Sampling
distribution
x  0
of z 
/ n Reject H0


Do Not Reject H0

z
0 z = 1.645
 Steps of Hypothesis Testing

Step 1. Develop the null and alternative hypotheses.

Step 2. Specify the level of significance .
Step 3. Collect the sample data and compute the test
statistic.

p-Value Approach
Step 4. Use the value of the test statistic to compute the
p-value.
Step 5. Reject H0 if p-value < .
Step 6. Interpret the statistical conclusion in the context
of the application .
 Steps of Hypothesis Testing

Critical Value Approach

Step 4. Use the level of significanceto determine the
critical value and the rejection rule.
Step 5. Use the value of the test statistic and the rejection
rule to determine whether to reject H0.

Step 6. Interpret the statistical conclusion in the context

of the application .
 One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
 Known
 Example: Metro EMS
The response times for a random
sample of 40 medical emergencies
were tabulated. The sample mean
is 13.25 minutes. The population
standard deviation is believed to
be 3.2 minutes.
The EMS director wants to
perform a hypothesis test, with a
.05 level of significance, to determine
whether the service goal of 12 minutes or less is being
achieved.
 One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
 Known
 p -Value and Critical Value Approaches

1. Develop the hypotheses. H0: 

Ha:

2. Specify the level of significance.  = .05

3. Compute the value of the test statistic.

x   13.25  12
z   2.47
 / n 3.2 / 40
 One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
 Known
 p –Value Approach

4. Compute the p –value.

For z = 2.47, cumulative probability = .9932.

p–value = 1  .9932 = .0068

5. Determine whether to reject H0.

Because p–value = .0068 <  = .05, we reject H0.
There is sufficient statistical evidence
to infer that Metro EMS is not meeting
the response goal of 12 minutes.
 One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
 Known
 p –Value Approach

Sampling
distribution  = .05
x  0
of z 
/ n

p-value


z
0 z = z=
1.645 2.47
 One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
 Known
 Critical Value Approach

4. Determine the critical value and rejection rule.

For  = .05, z.05 = 1.645

Reject H0 if z > 1.645

5. Determine whether to reject H0.

Because 2.47 > 1.645, we reject H0.
There is sufficient statistical evidence
to infer that Metro EMS is not meeting
the response goal of 12 minutes.
The advantage of the p-value approach is that the p-value tells
us how significant the results are (the observed level of
significance).

If we use the critical value approach, we only know that the

results are significant at the stated level of significance.
 p-Value Approach to
Two-Tailed Hypothesis Testing
 Compute the p-value using the following three steps:
1. Compute the value of the test statistic z.
2. If z is in the upper tail (z > 0), find the area under
the standard normal curve to the right of z.
If z is in the lower tail (z < 0), find the area under
the standard normal curve to the left of z.
3. Double the tail area obtained in step 2 to obtain
the p –value.
 The rejection rule:
Reject H0 if the p-value <  .
 Critical Value Approach to
Two-Tailed Hypothesis Testing
 The critical values will occur in both the lower and
upper tails of the standard normal curve.
 Use the standard normal probability distribution
table to find z/2 (the z-value with an area of /2 in
the upper tail of the distribution).
 The rejection rule is:

Reject H0 if z < -z/2 or z > z/2.

 Example: Glow Toothpaste

 Two-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:  Known

The production line for Glow toothpaste
is designed to fill tubes with a mean weight
of 6 oz. Periodically, a sample of 30 tubes oz.
will be selected in order to check the
filling process. Glow
Quality assurance procedures call for
the continuation of the filling process if the
sample results are consistent with the assumption that
the mean filling weight for the population of toothpaste
tubes is 6 oz.; otherwise the process will be adjusted.
 Example: Glow Toothpaste

 Two-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:  Known

Assume that a sample of 30 toothpaste
tubes provides a sample mean of 6.1 oz.
The population standard deviation is oz.
believed to be 0.2 oz.
Perform a hypothesis test, at the .03 Glow
level of significance, to help determine
whether the filling process should continue
operating or be stopped and corrected.
 Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
 Known Glow
 p –Value and Critical Value Approaches

1. Determine the hypotheses. H0: 

Ha:   6

2. Specify the level of significance.  = .03

3. Compute the value of the test statistic.

x  0 6.1  6
z   2.74
 / n .2 / 30
 Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
 Known Glow
 p –Value Approach

4. Compute the p –value.

For z = 2.74, cumulative probability = .9969

p–value = 2(1  .9969) = .0062

5. Determine whether to reject H0.

Because p–value = .0062 <  = .03, we reject H0.
There is sufficient statistical evidence to
infer that the alternative hypothesis is true
(i.e. the mean filling weight is not 6 ounces).
 Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
 Known Glow
 p-Value Approach

1/2 1/2
p -value p -value
= .0031 = .0031

/2 = /2 =
.015 .015

z
z = -2.74 0 z = 2.74
-z/2 = -2.17 z/2 = 2.17
 Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
 Known Glow
 Critical Value Approach

4. Determine the critical value and rejection rule.

For /2 = .03/2 = .015, z.015 = 2.17

Reject H0 if z < -2.17 or z > 2.17

5. Determine whether to reject H0.

Because 2.74 > 2.17, we reject H0.
There is sufficient statistical evidence to
infer that the alternative hypothesis is true
(i.e. the mean filling weight is not 6 ounces).
 Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
 Known Glow
 Critical Value Approach

Sampling
distribution
x  0
of z 
/ n

Reject H0 Do Not Reject H0 Reject H0

/2 = .015 /2 = .015

z
-2.17 0 2.17
 Confidence Interval Approach to
Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean
 Confidence Interval Approach to
Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean
Glow
The 97% confidence interval for  is

x  z / 2  6.1  2.17(.2 30 )  6.1  .07924
n 0.97+0.015=
or 6.02076 to 6.17924 0.9850
Because the hypothesized value for the
population mean, 0 = 6, is not in this interval,
the hypothesis-testing conclusion is that the
null hypothesis, H0:  = 6, can be rejected.
 Tests About a Population Mean:
 Unknown
 Test Statistic

x  0
t
s/ n

This test statistic has a t distribution

with n - 1 degrees of freedom.
 Tests About a Population Mean:
 Unknown
 Rejection Rule: p -Value Approach
Reject H0 if p –value < 
 Rejection Rule: Critical Value Approach
H0:  Reject H0 if t < -t

H0:  Reject H0 if t > t

H0:  Reject H0 if t < - t or t > t

 p -Values and the t Distribution

 The format of the t distribution table provided in most

statistics textbooks does not have sufficient detail
to determine the exact p-value for a hypothesis test.
 However, we can still use the t distribution table to
identify a range for the p-value.
 An advantage of computer software packages is that
the computer output will provide the p-value for the
t distribution.
 A business travel magazine wants to classify transatlantic gateway
airports according to the mean rating for the population of business
travelers. A rating scale with a low score of 0 and a high score of 10 will
be used, and airports with a population mean rating greater than 7 will
be designated as superior service airports. The magazine staff surveyed
a sample of 60 business travelers at each airport to obtain the ratings
data.

 The sample for London’s Heathrow Airport provided a sample mean

rating of 7.25 and a sample standard deviation of s 1.052. Do the data
indicate that Heathrow should be designated as a superior service
airport?
  Use α = .05 as the level of significance for the test.

Hypothesized value 7  
     
Sample mean 7.25  
Sample size 60  
Sample std. dev. 1.052  
= 1.052/ sqrt (60)
standard error 0.135812616
     
T VALUE FOR N-1 DF 1.840771552  
     
α = .05 as the level of significance
for the test.    
which is less than the alpha value
p value T.DIST.RT(1.841,59) 0.035342554 of 0.05
     
Heathrow should be classified as a
Conclusion Reject the H0 superior service airport. 
 Example: Highway Patrol

 One-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:  Unknown

A State Highway Patrol periodically samples
vehicle speeds at various locations
on a particular roadway.
The sample of vehicle speeds
is used to test the hypothesis

H0:  < 65

The locations where H0 is rejected are deemed

the best locations for radar traps.
 Example: Highway Patrol

 One-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:  Unknown

At Location F, a sample of 64 vehicles shows a
mean speed of 66.2 mph with a
standard deviation of
4.2 mph. Use  = .05 to
test the hypothesis.
 One-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:
 Unknown
 p –Value and Critical Value Approaches

1. Determine the hypotheses. H0 :  < 65

Ha :  > 65
2. Specify the level of significance.  = .05

3. Compute the value of the test statistic.

x   0 66.2  65
t   2.286
s / n 4.2 / 64
 One-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:
 Unknown
 p –Value Approach
df 0.025 0.01 0.005
4. Compute the p –value. 63 1.998 2.387 2.656

For t = 2.286, the p–value must be less than .025

(for t = 1.998) and greater than .01 (for t = 2.387).
.01 < p–value < .025

5. Determine whether to reject H0.

Because p–value <  = .05, we reject H0.
We are at least 95% confident that the mean speed
of vehicles at Location F is greater than 65 mph.
 One-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:
 Unknown
 Critical Value Approach

4. Determine the critical value and rejection rule.

For  = .05 and d.f. = 64 – 1 = 63, t.05 = 1.669

Reject H0 if t > 1.669

5. Determine whether to reject H0.

Because 2.286 > 1.669, we reject H0.
We are at least 95% confident that the mean speed
of vehicles at Location F is greater than 65 mph.
Location F is a good candidate for a radar trap at .05
level of significance.
One-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:
 Unknown

Reject H0
Do Not Reject H0 

t
0 t =
1.669
 Holiday toys

 Consider the hypothesis testing situation facing Holiday Toys. The

company manufactures and distributes its products through more than
1000 retail outlets.
 In planning production levels for the coming winter season, Holiday
must decide how many units of each product to produce prior to
knowing the actual demand at the retail level. For this year’s most
important new toy, Holiday’s marketing director is expecting demand
to average 40 units per retail outlet.

 Prior to making the final production decision based upon this estimate,
Holiday decided to survey a sample of 25 retailers in order to develop
more information about the demand for the new product. Each retailer
was provided with information about the features of the new toy along
with the cost and the suggested selling price. Then each retailer was
asked to specify an anticipated order quantity.
 Hypothesis testing

continue its production planning

Re evaluate its production plan for the product

The sample of 25 retailers provided a mean of 37.4 and a

standard deviation of s =11.79 units.

histogram of the sample data showed no evidence of skewness or any

extreme outliers= sample data is sufficient
 With a level of significance of α= .05

p-value is greater than 0.05 (T.DIST.2T(1.1,24))=.2822

Cannot reject the H0

Sufficient evidence is not available to conclude that Holiday

should change its production plan for the coming season.
 With α= .05 and the t distribution with 24 degrees of
freedom, t = 2.064 and t =2.064
.025 -- .025

  T.DIST.RT T.DIST T.DIST.2T

p-value 0.141121842 0.141122 0.282244

       
α 0.025 0.025 0.05

 Do Not Reject H0 

Reject H0
t = -2.064
t =2.064 t
t = -1.10 0
 T.DIST.RT T.DIST T.DIST.2T
p-value 0.141121842 0.141122 0.282244
ALPHA 0.025 0.025 0.05

critical value 2.063898562 -2.0639

t stats 1.1 -1.1

t value Df T.dist T.dist.rt

1.1 24 0.858878 0.141122 1
 A Summary of Forms for Null and Alternative
Hypotheses About a Population Proportion
 The equality part of the hypotheses always appears
in the null hypothesis.
 In general, a hypothesis test about the value of a
population proportion p must take one of the
following three forms (where p0 is the hypothesized
value of the population proportion).

H 0 : p  p0 H 0 : p  p0 H 0 : p  p0
H a : p  p0 H a : p  p0 H a : p  p0
One-tailed One-tailed Two-tailed
(lower tail) (upper tail)
 Tests About a Population Proportion

 Test Statistic
p  p0
z
p

where:

p0 (1  p0 )
p 
n

assuming np > 5 and n(1 – p) > 5

 Tests About a Population Proportion

 Rejection Rule: p –Value Approach

Reject H0 if p –value < 
 Rejection Rule: Critical Value Approach
H0: pp Reject H0 if z > z

H0: pp Reject H0 if z < -z

H0: pp Reject H0 if z < -z or z > z

 Two-Tailed Test About a
Population Proportion
 Example: National Safety Council (NSC)
For a Christmas and New Year’s week, the
National Safety Council estimated that
500 people would be killed and 25,000
injured on the nation’s roads. The
NSC claimed that 50% of the
accidents would be caused by
drunk driving.
 Two-Tailed Test About a
Population Proportion
 Example: National Safety Council (NSC)
A sample of 120 accidents showed that
67 were caused by drunk driving. Use
these data to test the NSC’s claim with
 = .05.
 Two-Tailed Test About a
Population Proportion
 p –Value and Critical Value Approaches

1. Determine the hypotheses. H 0 : p  .5

H a : p  .5
2. Specify the level of significance.  = .05

3. Compute the value of the test statistic.

p 0 (1  p 0 ) .5(1  .5)
p    .045644
a common n 120
error is using p  p 0 (67 /120)  .5
p in this z   1.28
formula p .045644
 Two-Tailed Test About a
Population Proportion
 pValue Approach

4. Compute the p -value.

For z = 1.28, cumulative probability = .8997
p–value = 2(1  .8997) = .2006

5. Determine whether to reject H0.

Because p–value = .2006 >  = .05, we cannot reject H0.
 Two-Tailed Test About a
Population Proportion
 Critical Value Approach

4. Determine the criticals value and rejection rule.

For /2 = .05/2 = .025, z.025 = 1.96

Reject H0 if z < -1.96 or z > 1.96

5. Determine whether to reject H0.

Because 1.278 > -1.96 and < 1.96, we cannot reject H0.

NORM.S.INV(0.025) -1.959963985