Sampling and Sampling Distributions
Aims of Sampling
Probability Distributions
Sampling Distributions
The Central Limit Theorem
Types of Samples
Aims of sampling
Reduces cost of research (e.g. political
polls)
Generalize about a larger population (e.g.,
benefits of sampling city r/t neighborhood)
In some cases (e.g. industrial production)
analysis may be destructive, so sampling
is needed
Probability
Probability: what is the chance that a given
event will occur?
Probability is expressed in numbers
between 0 and 1. Probability = 0 means
the event never happens; probability = 1
means it always happens.
The total probability of all possible event
always sums to 1.
Probability distributions: Permutations
What is the probability distribution of number
of girls in families with two children?
2 GG
1 BG
1 GB
0 BB
0.6
Probability Distribution of
Number of Girls
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0 1 2
How about family of three?
Num. Girls child #1 child #2 child #3
0 B B B
1 B B G
1 B G B
1 G B B
2 B G G
2 G B G
2 G G B
3 G G G
Probability distribution of number of girls
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0 1 2 3
How about a family of 10?
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
As family size increases, the binomial
distribution looks more and more normal.
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 -0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Number of Successes Number of Successes
Normal distribution
Same shape, if you adjusted the scales
A C
Coin toss
Toss a coin 30 times
Tabulate results
Coin toss
Suppose this were 12 randomly selected
families, and heads were girls
If you did it enough times distribution would
approximate “Normal” distribution
Think of the coin tosses as samples of all
possible coin tosses
Sampling distribution
Sampling distribution of the mean – A
theoretical probability distribution of sample
means that would be obtained by drawing from
the population all possible samples of the same
size.
Central Limit Theorem
No matter what we are measuring, the
distribution of any measure across all
possible samples we could take
approximates a normal distribution, as
long as the number of cases in each
sample is about 30 or larger.
Central Limit Theorem
If we repeatedly drew samples from a
population and calculated the mean of a
variable or a percentage or, those sample
means or percentages would be normally
distributed.
Most empirical distributions are not normal:
U.S. Income distribution 1992
But the sampling distribution of mean income over
many samples is normal
N
u
m
b
e
r
Number of
samples
o
f
s
a 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
m
p Sampling Distribution of Income, 1992 (thousands)
l
e
s
Distribution of Sample Means with 21
Samples
10
S.D. = 2.02
Mean of means = 41.0
8 Number of Means = 21
Frequency
0 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
Sample Means
Distribution of Sample Means with 96
Samples
14
S.D. = 1.80
12 Mean of Means = 41.12
Number of Means = 96
10
8
Frequency
0 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
Sample Means
Distribution of Sample Means with 170
Samples
30
S.D. = 1.71
Mean of Means= 41.12
Number of Means= 170
20
Frequency
10
0 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
Sample Means
The standard deviation of the sampling
distribution is called the standard error
Random Sampling
Simple Random Sample – A sample
designed in such a way as to ensure that
(1) every member of the population has
an equal chance of being chosen and (2)
every combination of N members has an
equal chance of being chosen.
This can be done using a computer,
calculator, or a table of random numbers
Random Sampling
Systematic random sampling – A method
of sampling in which every Kth member (K is
a ration obtained by dividing the population
size by the desired sample size) in the total
population is chosen for inclusion in the
sample after the first member of the sample
is selected at random from among the first K
members of the population.
Stratified Random Sampling
Proportionate stratified sample – The size
of the sample selected from each subgroup is
proportional to the size of that subgroup in
the entire population. (Self weighting)
Disproportionate stratified sample – The
size of the sample selected from each
subgroup is disproportional to the size of that
subgroup in the population. (needs weights)
Stratified Random Sampling
Stratified random sample – A method of
sampling obtained by (1) dividing the
population into subgroups based on one or
more variables central to our analysis and
(2) then drawing a simple random sample
from each of the subgroups
Sampling Distribution of the
Mean
An example
A die is thrown infinitely many times. Let X
represent the number of spots showing on
any throw.
The probability distribution of X is
x 1 2 3 4 5 6
p(x) 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6
Throwing a die twice – sample
mean
Sample
Sample Mean Sample
Mean Sample Mean Sample
Mean Sample Mean
Mean
11 1,1
1,1 11 13
13 3,1
3,1 22 25
25 5,1
5,1 33
22 1,2
1,2 1.5
1.5 14
14 3,2 2.5
3,2 2.5 26
26 5,2
5,2 3.5
3.5
33 1,3
1,3 22 15
15 3,3
3,3 33 27
27 5,3
5,3 44
44 1,4
1,4 2.5
2.5 16
16 3,4 3.5
3,4 3.5 28
28 5,4
5,4 4.5
4.5
55 1,5
1,5 33 17
17 3,5
3,5 44 29
29 5,5
5,5 55
66 1,6
1,6 3.5
3.5 18
18 3,6 4.5
3,6 4.5 30
30 5,6
5,6 5.5
5.5
77 2,1
2,1 1.5
1.5 19
19 4,1 2.5
4,1 2.5 31
31 6,1
6,1 3.5
3.5
88 2,2
2,2 22 20
20 4,2
4,2 33 32
32 6,2
6,2 44
99 2,3
2,3 2.5
2.5 21
21 4,3 3.5
4,3 3.5 33
33 6,3
6,3 4.5
4.5
10
10 2,4
2,4 33 22
22 4,4
4,4 44 34
34 6,4
6,4 55
11
11 2,5
2,5 3.5
3.5 23
23 4,5 4.5
4,5 4.5 35
35 6,5
6,5 5.5
5.5
12
12 2,6
2,6 44 24
24 4,6
4,6 55 36
36 6,6
6,6 66
