RBI RATE CUT
Rate cut likely by year-end; GST reforms to boost credit demand: Goldman Sachs
An additional policy rate cut is expected before year-end, alongside recent GST simplifications indicating that peak fiscal consolidation is behind us. These factors, combined with domestic regulatory easing, are likely to foster a gradual recovery in credit demand, said a report by Goldman Sachs.
How the 2025 rate cycle could redefine fixed income strategies
After maintaining a tight monetary policy stance for nearly two years to contain inflation, the Reserve Bank of India has begun easing rates in 2025 as price pressures moderate and growth momentum stabilizes.
Navigating market turbulence and resilience: Indian fixed income in the year so far
Indian fixed income saw modest gains. Low inflation and strong growth supported returns. Steady foreign investment and RBI policy provided a boost. Government bond yields experienced volatility. The RBI paused its repo rate at 5.50%, awaiting global trade clarity. This pause signals potential future easing. Foreign investors remained net buyers of Indian debt.
Further rate cut today runs the risk of an overdose, says RBI MPC member Ram Singh
Ram Singh, an external member of the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee, believes an immediate rate cut poses an overdose risk. He states that existing monetary and fiscal measures are still impacting the economy. Singh emphasizes tracking both nominal and real GDP growth. He also notes that low inflation negatively affects businesses and public finances.
India bonds likely to see opening dip as focus on debt supply
Indian government bonds are poised for a softer start on Friday. Traders are anticipating a fresh supply of debt from a weekly auction. The benchmark 10-year note yield may fluctuate between 6.49% and 6.52%. Demand-supply dynamics will guide market movements. The Reserve Bank of India's latest meeting minutes aligned with expectations, indicating potential for future rate cuts as inflation eases.
Rupee hits one-month high amidst Fed rate cut speculations and RBI intervention
The rupee surged to a one-month high of 87.82 against the dollar on Thursday, buoyed by a weaker dollar index and positive sentiment from equity markets and India-US trade talks. This rally followed suspected heavy RBI intervention on Wednesday, which helped the rupee trade above the 88/$1 mark for a second consecutive day.
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INDIA BONDS-India bond rally stalls as in-line RBI minutes spur profit taking
Indian government bonds slipped on Thursday, snapping a three-day run of gains, as traders booked profits after dovish minutes from the central bank's latest monetary policy meeting, which aligned with market expectations.
India bonds rise before RBI minutes, rate cut cues may fuel more gains
Indian government bonds ended higher for a third consecutive session on Wednesday, ahead of the release of the minutes from the central bank's latest policy meeting, where a dovish tone could fuel further rise.
Profit booking thwarts key level breach for India bonds
On Thursday morning, Indian government bonds experienced a surprising downturn as traders opted to lock in profits. This dip followed the release of the Reserve Bank of India's latest meeting minutes, which hinted at possible future interest rate cuts. With inflationary pressures easing, the market is buzzing with speculation about a potential rate cut in December.
Rupee's steepest rise in 4 months said to come on big $ sales by RBI
The Indian Rupee strengthened significantly against the US Dollar on Wednesday. This sharp rise followed substantial dollar sales by the Reserve Bank of India. Market participants believe this intervention aimed to curb speculative positions. The Rupee had been trading in a narrow range for weeks. The central bank's action helped the currency recover from recent lows.
India bond rally gets dovish RBI push, rate cut bets gain ground
Today, Indian government bonds are expected to rise as minutes from the Reserve Bank of India’s latest meeting boost hopes for a possible rate cut. This shift is anticipated to affect bond yields positively. With a more favorable inflation outlook, the central bank may have the leeway needed for additional policy support, signaling further monetary easing ahead.
Growth has many sparks but tariff can dim glow
Central bank governor Sanjay Malhotra indicated robust September-quarter growth, citing agricultural prospects and services sector strength. However, he expressed caution about the second half of FY26 due to US tariffs, despite GST rationalization. The RBI maintained its repo rate at 5.50% and a neutral stance.
Can India's economic growth weather the storm of US tariffs this fiscal year?
Positive signals from high-frequency indicators paint an optimistic picture for growth in the September quarter. Nevertheless, Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra has urged caution for the latter half of FY26, highlighting concerns over the repercussions of US tariffs.
GST 2.0 shields India from Trump tariffs but Malhotra & co warn further rate cut risks overdose: RBI MPC Minutes
India's economy showed strong resilience in Q1:2025-26, expanding by 7.8% and prompting the RBI to raise its full-year growth forecast to 6.8%. Despite US tariff measures and visa fee hikes, GST reforms are expected to partially cushion the impact. The RBI cautioned against an immediate rate cut, citing current inflation levels and the ongoing effects of previous monetary easing.
RBI's liquidity boost falters amid FX market intervention, analysts say
The Reserve Bank of India's liquidity infusion through CRR cuts has been less effective than anticipated, with dollar sales and maturing FX forwards absorbing funds. Analysts suggest this will likely lead to a rise in short-term rates, as net liquidity injection has been significantly lower than planned.
SBI lending rates latest update: Has State Bank of India lowered its MCLR rates for home, personal loans?
State Bank of India has maintained its Marginal Cost of Funds Based Lending Rate (MCLR) and External Benchmark-linked Rates for October 2025. This decision follows the Reserve Bank of India's stance of keeping repo rates unchanged at 5.5% during its October 1, 2025 Monetary Policy Committee meeting.
Rupee recovers 88 paise from its all-time closing low to 87.93 against US dollar in early trade
The Indian rupee has made a strong recovery against the US dollar. This rebound comes after the US Federal Reserve signaled potential rate cuts. Falling crude oil prices and intervention by the Reserve Bank of India also supported the rupee. The dollar index has eased, boosting investor confidence in the domestic currency. Stock markets are also showing gains.
India bonds rise before RBI policy minutes; break of 6.50% remains elusive
Indian government bonds saw gains early Wednesday. Investors await the Reserve Bank of India's policy meeting minutes. The benchmark 10-year bond yield stayed close to 6.50%. Lower retail inflation fuels expectations of interest rate cuts. Market participants anticipate a rate reduction in December, with some predicting another cut in February.
Inflation makes case for rate cut, but growth indicators are benign
Inflation has dipped to its lowest point in eight years, opening the door for potential interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of India, with analysts suggesting a reduction of 25 to 50 basis points. However, uncertainty looms as the economic growth outlook and trade issues remain in flux.
Inflation dips, but RBI may trim rates slowly
Retail inflation hit an 8-year low, driven by falling food prices. However, core inflation surged to a two-year high, potentially making it sticky. While a rate cut is possible, the RBI may adopt a cautious, forward-looking approach due to sticky core inflation and other economic factors.
India bonds edge up on softer state debt cut-offs; RBI minutes in focus
Indian government bonds ended slightly higher on Tuesday, buoyed by lower cut-offs at the weekly state debt auction, while traders awaited minutes from the central bank's latest policy meeting.
RBI unlikely to rush into rate cuts despite easing inflation: Indranil Pan
While inflation remains within the RBI's target, market experts are debating potential rate cuts. However, the central bank is expected to maintain a cautious approach, prioritizing growth momentum over short-term price fluctuations. Any rate cut hinges on significant downside risks to economic growth, which currently appear unlikely.
Has General Provident Fund interest rate for govt employees been hiked?
GPF interest rate: The Ministry of Finance has announced the GPF interest rate for October-December 2025. This rate applies to various government provident funds, including GPF, CPF, and All India Services Provident Fund. The government also maintained unchanged interest rates for small savings schemes for the same quarter.
Expectations of a 50 bps rate cut in FY26: Garima Kapoor on RBI’s forward-looking policy
Economist Garima Kapoor anticipates a 50 basis point rate cut by the RBI in FY26, citing easing inflation and robust public capex. She highlights deregulation initiatives as unique, while noting risks from the external sector and potential impacts on rural demand. Kapoor believes the RBI is strategically holding its ground amid global uncertainties.
India's retail inflation falls to 8-year low in September
India's retail inflation dropped to a near three-year low of 1.5% in September, primarily due to falling food prices. This easing inflation, below the RBI's target, has economists anticipating a potential rate cut in December, especially if growth momentum falters.
India's retail inflation in September hits over 8-year low, eases below RBI's lower end of target range
India's retail inflation fell to 1.54% in September, the lowest since June 2017. Food prices saw a significant drop, contributing to this easing. This trend provides room for potential interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India. The central bank has lowered its inflation forecast for the fiscal year. The outlook remains benign, though global factors pose risks.
Bond yields steady as RBI holds rates; accrual strategies favoured going ahead: Devang Shah
India’s 10-year bond yield inched up 4 bps to 6.57% in September, supported by stable policy, ample liquidity, and a dovish global backdrop after the US Fed’s rate cut. RBI may deliver one more 25 bps cut by December.
Fixed income set to perform well amid limited easing room, says Churchil Bhatt
Fixed income assets are poised for strong performance over the next year. Churchil Bhatt of Kotak Mahindra Life Insurance highlights supportive macroeconomic conditions. Investors can anticipate better-than-average returns. Recent RBI policy signals potential rate cuts. New banking reforms are set to boost M&A financing and corporate borrowing. This presents a favorable environment for fixed income investments.
RBI may deliver one more rate cut in December, says report
BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, forecasts the Reserve Bank of India will cut its benchmark repo rate by another 25 basis points to 5.25% in December 2025. This projection stems from expectations of inflation and growth falling short of RBI's targets, creating room for further easing despite recent signals from the Governor.
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