Global Migration Trends and Impacts
Global Migration Trends and Impacts
Global Migration
Stephen Castles
Migration Trends
(UN
United Nations Department of Economicand Social Affairs
According to the (defined as people living outside
internation al migrants
DESA), the world total of grew from about 100million in 1960 to
at least a year) oftHe
their country of birth for sounds a lot, but is just 3 per cent
2005). This
191 million in 2005 (UNDESA that most people remajn in their
realize
world's 6 billion people. I: is important todata on trends in international migration
presents UN
countries of birth. Table 19.1 regions as well.as globally. But since
growth in all
since 1960, showing considerable in the number of migrants in Asia, Africa and
increase
1990, there has been little Europe and North America, refiecting an
has been in
Latin America--the big growth South (less developed regions) to the North
the Global
increase in migration from
(more developed regions). revealed even more clearly by
South-North migration is
The importance of UN), which divides international
migrants into
provided by the
Figure 19.1 (also number of migrants (62 million) has moved
largest
four geographical categories. The of the South to the developed countries of the global
from the less-developed countries highBy-skilled specialists (doctors,
inciude
North. These migrants are very diverse and weil as low-skilled workers, refugees and
experts, engineers and managers), as
IT
62311lin MOB
COLL
61 million
South: South HAN
Únitcd Nations Iorulstlon Dryiyon, 2007
Figure 19.1 International Migration Between South and North, 2005 &
K.M
family members. The second largest group (61 million) has moved from one south
ern counry to another. The third group (53 million) consists of migrants who have &
moved between rich Northern countries. The smallest category is of people who have COL
gone fromn North to South (14 million).
However, a focus on international migration can give a deceptive picture. Many
people in p0orer areas move within their own countries. Internal migration attracts HIN
far less political attention, but its volurne in pqpuiation giants like China, India,
Indonesia, Braziland Nigeria is far greater than that of international movements. The
social and cultural consequences can be equaily important. In China the 'ioating CEN
population' of people moing from the agricultural centraland westerh provinces to
the new industrial areas of the east coast numbers at least 100 million, and many of
them experience legal di_advantage and economic marginalization, very like interna XER
tional migrants elsewhere.
In the past, most discussion of migration has focused either on economically
motivated movements or on forced migrationi.e., flows of refugees or internally
di_placed people seeking protection from persecution or violence. Recently, migration PRA
to escape the effects of climate change has been added to the category of forced mi
gration (Wood 2001). Moreover, the emphasis has been on long-term or permanent
migration and itsconsequences for both origin and destination societies. However,re
cent improvements in transport and communications have made it possible for people
to move for a wider range of reasons, and often to move temporarily and repeatedly
in what is often called 'circular migration'. Indeed, some analysts now prefer to use
the term mobility' to stress the lexible nature of emerging types of movementS TO
purposes such as:
idea is that some of the world's mst exploitd workers should provide the capital for
development, where official aid programmes have failed. It is useful to extend this
notion of a new mantra' to /nclude the whole range of benefits that migration is said
to bring for development:
Migrants also transfer home skills and attitudes, known as 'social remittances',
which support development.
'Brain, drain' is being replaced by 'brain circulation', which benefits both
sending and receiving countries.
Temporary (or circular) labour migration can stimulate development.
Migrant diasporas can be a powerful force for development, through transfer
of resources and ideas.
Economic development will reduce out-migration.
t Agrowing literature' deals with this theme. A key issue is the developmental im
pact of remittances. Millions of families in origin countries have become dependent
280
Stephen Castles
K World Bank estimates for 2006 put the total of
migrant
offcial channels to developing countries at S199 billion--a growthtransfers through
of 107 per cent
romthe 2001 hgure of $96 billion (World Bank 2007). However, unrecorded Aowe
through informal channels may add S0 per cent or more to recorded Aows. Remit.
Iances are now the largest torm of transter from North to South, exceeding foreien
aid and even foreign direct investment. In 2004, India was the world's largest recipi
ent of remittances with US$ 21.7 billion, folowed by China (US$ 21.3 Bilion), Mexicn
(USs 18.1 billion) and the Philippines (USS. 1!:6 billion) (World Bank 2006). The
global financial crisis of 2007-09 affected many farmilies in origin countries, although
remittances proved surprisingly resilient, as migrant workers made sacrifices to help
their families at home (Ratha and Zhimei 2008).
Detailed studies of origin countries show a diversity óf experiences. Remitances
do not automatically lead to benefcial economic and social changes. Indeed, under
certain circumstances, remittances can lead to inefficient types of investment and
economic dependence on continuingemigration, and sometimes even hide areverg
Aow of funds to rich countries. The cl¡imedpositive link berween remittances and
economic growth only applies if appropriate policies are put in place to encourage
legal transfers and productive investment, to reduce corruption and unnecessary bu
reaucracy, and to provide an investment-friendly infrastructure.
skilled is rather
The experience with technology transfer and return of the highly
similar--positive effects are only realized if opportunities and structures in emigra
before the end of their
tioncountries change in such a way that emigrants do return
able to ethhance,
working lives. A further pre-condition is that skilled migrants arenot the case, since
away. This is often
or at least maintain their qualifcations while
skilled migrants may be employed in low-skilled jobs.
(Levitt 1998). The message coming
Social remittances can also have varying effects
that new ways of working, inves(
back to home communities from emigråntscan be emigration
prosperity,but it can also be that
ing and running public affairs can bring
the only way out of a hopeless situation. The emergence of emigration as a ie
15
young people can lead to a loss not only of productive workers, but
Or passage tor Emigration of labour, whether skilled or less
also to the absence of agents of change.
the countryof emigratton. e
skilled, can lead to serious loss of potential growth for eftects.
the long run by positivemigration
question is whether this loss can be outweighed indebate
development concerns skilled
1ssue in the migration and changng
n key
Governments and international agencies now focus on fornms of
o e south. into more positive
what was previously seen as a damaging 'brain drain' official dec-
between
gap
brain circulation' or 'brain gain'. However, there is alargeefforts retain
great to attract and
still make
larations and the reality that rich countries
medicine, education and information
in the helds of Canada, Britain,
qualified personnel (especially the 1970s, the USA,
technology) from developing countries. Since rules to attract medical
preferential entry
Australia and New Zealand have established technology(IT)'profes-
increasingly, information their
doctors, engineers, managers and, European Union have set up
sionals. In recent Yers, Germany, France and the
Own green card' or 'blue card' systems to draw in mobile professionals. Emerging
ASan eçonomies, like Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan have joined the race for
human capital and China is not far behind.
Opinions vary on the consequences of taking the 'brightest and best' (Ellerman
003: 17) from the Sputh. Stripping the scarce skills of southern nations in a global
brain drain' can harm health and education systems, and hold back development. In
2005, aquarter of all doctors in the USA and a third in the U6 were foreign rained
(OECD 2007: 181) Indian doctors and nurses from the Philippines were the largest
sources for OECD countries. India, with its huge population, can perhaps cope with
the departure of medical personnel, but some of the poorest African and Caribbean
countries (such as Mozambique, Angola, Haiti, Liberia and Tanzania) have lost more
than hàlf their dectors (OECD 2007: 176-7).
However, some experts argue that 'brain circulation' may,help improve education
.
systems in origin countries,and will in the long run lead toreturn of enhanced skills to
asist in development (Lowell et al. 2002). Taiwan's economic take-off relied substan
tialy on bringing back talents, while the growth of the Indian IT industry depended on
the return of professionals from Silicon Valley. But the Indian example also reveals the
problems of basing development on return of migrants--the growth ofa high-tech sec
tor seems to have brought litle beneft for millions of impoverished farmers and urban
slum-dwellers, and may have reinforced the dualism of the Indian economy.
Recognition of the role of diasporas in development does seem an important step
forward.. This new discourse in the international migration feld folows changes of per
ceptions in emigration countries and the introduction of a range of measures and institu
tions to involve the diaspora /n bringing about positive changes in the homeland. Col
lective remittances for community investment by 'hometown associations' and similar
groups are still very modest compared with private ffows. Knowledge transfer networks
(ike India's Diaspora Kndwledge Network or the Philippine's LINKAPIL) seem positive,
but quite small compared with individual remitances and commercial transfers.
The general conclusion ôn migration and development is therefore that there is
great potential for outcomes benehcial to sending country populations, but the con
ditions for realising these are complex and difhcult. Migration alone cannot
remnove
structural constraints to economic growth, social change and greater democracy.
There. is a néed for broadly-based long-term approaches that link the
efts of migration with more general strategies to potential ben
reduce inequality and to improve
economic infrastructure, social welfare and political
the benefits of migration for countriesof origin governance. Policies to maximize
should thus be part of much broader
strategies designed to reduce poverty and achieve development (DFID 2007:
37-40).
COnrast, has been seen as a preserve of national sovereignty. Theré is a sernous gover
to ensure
iance dehcit-the international community has failed to build instiçutions
rhaximize developmeht
human rights of migrants and
orderly migration, protect theElements exist in
Denehts (Bhagwati 2003). of an international framework already Conven
UN
and No. 143 of 197S, and in. the 1990
ILO Conventions No. 97 of 1949
Workers and Members of their Farmilies. and there is
tion on the Rights of Migrant instrúments,
these
However, relatively few countries have ratifed international' measure, the.
the most important 2009-out of the
t e enective
cooperation. In fact, by July.
only been ratified by 42 nations concerned with,reducing
1990 UN Convention had Countries have been
192 members of the UN! Emigration remittances. Immigration countries have
needed to
internal labour surpluses and maximizingincrease labour costs. Efforts are
which might Conventions and to link them together in
been reluctant to take steps implement the
persuade more countries to workers. European Union has
comprehensive frarmework for the rights ofmigrant migration. The
a bodies seek to Cooperate on citizens of memberstates, and
com
Some regionalintroducing free movement for com
furthest by from non-members. In future,
gone
towards asylum and
migration
essential part of regional integration
RQlicies an
mÓr
policies on migration should be seen as on internationaB cooperation and de
mon linked to policies Migrants
"everywhere, and should be could also bring benefits.
cooperation between statessecurity. Emigration countries could
velopment. Bilateral protection and social and 're
through better and restrictions 'on agents
couldgain simoother transfer of remittances better-trained migrant
benefit from more stable and
Immigration countries could gain a
cruiters. the UN
workforce. International Migration mandated by
In 2003, a Global
Commission on
Report (GCIM 2005) argued that mi
work. The GCIM
Secretary General took up its national, regional and global strategies for
integral part of The GCIM put
gration should 'become an the developing and the developed world'.
economic growth, in both benefits of international migration, including
maximizing the and trafficking, to encour
forward proposals for drain', to prevent smuggling
measures to limit the 'brain enhance the role of diasporas as, agents of develop
and to ministers
age the Aow of remittances the topic of a High Level Dialogue of to the
development was
ment. Migration and General Assembly in September 2006. This led
and seniorofficials at the UN Migration and Developnent,. which imet in Brussels
establishment of aGlobal Forum on
and Athens in 2009.
in 2007, in Manila in 2008
have no decision-making powers--they have a merely advisory role
Such bodies implement ariy measures that might lead
and powerful states have been unwilling to experienced by developed státes
to higher costs for migrant labour. But the difficulties
more willingness to cooperate with ori
in managing migration may in future lead to dialogue and cooperj
gin states. Perhaps this might bring about greater North-South concerned are wiling
tion on migration issues. However, this willonly happen if all
forward that will be of
to move away from old prejudices and look for new ways
heneft to miaraats. sending countries and receiving countries alike.
Global Migration 283
Endnotes