SAMPLING AND SAMPLING
DISTRIBUTION
• Name: Koushik Chakma
• Roll: 1367
• Department: Electrical and Electronics Engineering
• Session: 2019-20
SAMPLING AND SAMPLING
DISTRIBUTIONS
• Aims of Sampling
• Probability Distributions
• Sampling Distributions
• The Central Limit Theorem
• Types of Samples
AIMS OF SAMPLING
• Reduces cost of research (e.g. political polls)
• Generalize about a larger population (e.g., benefits of sampling city r/t
neighborhood)
• In some cases (e.g. industrial production) analysis may be destructive, so
sampling is needed
PROBABILITY
• Probability: what is the chance that a given event will occur?
• Probability is expressed in numbers between 0 and 1. Probability = 0 means
the event never happens; probability = 1 means it always happens.
• The total probability of all possible event always sums to 1.
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS:
PERMUTATIONS
What is the probability distribution of number of girls in families with two
children?
2 GG
1 BG
1 GB
0 BB
0.6
Probability Distribution of
Number of Girls
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0 1 2
HOW ABOUT FAMILY OF THREE?
Num. Girls child #1 child #2 child #3
0 B B B
1 B B G
1 B G B
1 G B B
2 B G G
2 G B G
2 G G B
3 G G G
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF
NUMBER OF GIRLS
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0 1 2 3
HOW ABOUT A FAMILY OF 10?
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
AS FAMILY SIZE INCREASES, THE BINOMIAL
DISTRIBUTION LOOKS MORE AND MORE
NORMAL.
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 -0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Number of Successes Number of Successes
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
B
Same shape, if you adjusted the scales
A C
COIN TOSS
• Toss a coin 30 times
• Tabulate results
COIN TOSS
• Suppose this were 12 randomly selected families,
and heads were girls
• If you did it enough times distribution would
approximate “Normal” distribution
• Think of the coin tosses as samples of all possible
coin tosses
SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION
Sampling distribution of the mean – A theoretical
probability distribution of sample means that
would be obtained by drawing from the
population all possible samples of the same size.
CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM
• No matter what we are measuring, the distribution of any measure across all
possible samples we could take approximates a normal distribution, as long as
the number of cases in each sample is about 30 or larger.
CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM
If we repeatedly drew samples from a population
and calculated the mean of a variable or a
percentage or, those sample means or
percentages would be normally distributed.
MOST EMPIRICAL DISTRIBUTIONS ARE NOT
NORMAL:
U.S. Income distribution 1992
BUT THE SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION OF
MEAN INCOME OVER MANY SAMPLES IS
NORMAL
N
u
m
b
e
r
Number of
samples
o
f
s
a 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
m
p Sampling Distribution of Income, 1992 (thousands)
l
e
s
STANDARD DEVIATION
Measures how spread out
a distribution is. X i
2
Square root of the sum of
the squared deviations
of each case from the
mean over the number
of cases, or
Example of Standard Deviation
Deviation from Mean
2
Amount X (X - X) (X-X)
600 435 600 - 435 = 165 27,225
350 435 350 - 435 = -85 7,225
275 435 275 - 435 = -160 25,600
430 435 430 -435 = -5 25
520 435 520 - 435 = 85 7,225
0 67,300
( X X )2
67,300
= 16,825 = 129.71
s= n 1
=
4
Standard Deviation and Normal Distribution
Distribution of Sample Means with 21
Samples
10
S.D. = 2.02
Mean of means = 41.0
8 Number of Means = 21
Frequency
0 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
Sample Means
Distribution of Sample Means with 96
Samples
14
S.D. = 1.80
12 Mean of Means = 41.12
Number of Means = 96
10
8
Frequency
0 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
Sample Means
Distribution of Sample Means with 170
Samples
30
S.D. = 1.71
Mean of Means= 41.12
Number of Means= 170
20
Frequency
10
0 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
Sample Means
The standard deviation of the sampling distribution is called the standard error
The Central Limit Theorem
Standard error can be estimated from a single sample:
Where
s is the sample standard deviation (i.e., the
sample based estimate of the standard deviation of the
population), and
n is the size (number of observations) of the sample.
Confidence intervals
Because we know that the sampling distribution is normal,
we know that 95.45% of samples will fall within two
standard errors.
95% of samples fall within 1.96
standard errors.
99% of samples fall within
2.58 standard errors.
SAMPLING
• Population – A group that includes all the cases (individuals, objects, or
groups) in which the researcher is interested.
• Sample – A relatively small subset from a population.
RANDOM SAMPLING
• Simple Random Sample – A sample designed in such a way as to ensure that
(1) every member of the population has an equal chance of being chosen and
(2) every combination of N members has an equal chance of being chosen.
• This can be done using a computer, calculator, or a table of random numbers
Population inferences can be made...
...by selecting a representative sample from
the population
RANDOM SAMPLING
• Systematic random sampling – A method of sampling in which every Kth member
(K is a ration obtained by dividing the population size by the desired sample size) in
the total population is chosen for inclusion in the sample after the first member of
the sample is selected at random from among the first K members of the
population.
SYSTEMATIC RANDOM SAMPLING
STRATIFIED RANDOM SAMPLING
Proportionate stratified sample – The size of the
sample selected from each subgroup is
proportional to the size of that subgroup in the
entire population. (Self weighting)
Disproportionate stratified sample – The size of
the sample selected from each subgroup is
disproportional to the size of that subgroup in the
population. (needs weights)
DISPROPORTIONATE STRATIFIED
SAMPLE
STRATIFIED RANDOM SAMPLING
• Stratified random sample – A method of sampling obtained by (1) dividing the
population into subgroups based on one or more variables central to our
analysis and (2) then drawing a simple random sample from each of the
subgroups
