RIL Q2 results today: 10 things to track as investors nurse Rs 1.8 lakh crore loss after Q1

Reliance Industries (RIL) will report its September quarter (Q2FY26) results today and the market will be watching closely. The stock has fallen nearly 6% since the Q1 results, wiping out close to Rs 1.8 lakh crore in investor wealth. Despite posting record profits last quarter, investor sentiment has been subdued. Analysts point to a mix of near-term concerns -- from cash flow strain to a holding company discount -- that has weighed on the stock.

Why RIL shares fell 6%

Analysts said the recent correction reflects concerns around large capex plans and near-term cash flows. Reliance’s aggressive investments, particularly in its petrochemical expansion and new energy ventures, have raised questions about return timelines.

Another factor is the market’s decision to assign a holding company discount -- estimated between 30–40% -- after RIL announced it would become the parent holding company for Jio. "This has effectively reduced Jio’s contribution to RIL’s valuation by Rs 100–150 per share," said Abhishek Jain, Head of Research at Arihant Capital,

Additionally, free cash flow worries and cautious guidance have dampened near-term optimism. The stock has largely stayed range-bound for a year as investors await clearer evidence of earnings contribution from the company’s massive capex cycle.

Sourav Choudhary, MD at Raghunath Capital, said the weakness "isn’t about fundamentals collapsing but more about resetting expectations." He cited weaker global fuel margins, slower retail growth, and heavy clean energy capex as near-term drags. "Until new businesses start generating cash, investors are unlikely to assign a premium valuation," he said.

Abhinav Tiwari, Research Analyst at Bonanza, added that part of Q1’s profit surge came from a one-time Rs 8,900 crore gain from the sale of Reliance’s Asian Paints stake — nearly 30% of its net profit. "Excluding that, core growth was decent but not exceptional, and that disappointed the market," he said.

Still, analysts remain cautiously optimistic. RIL’s diversification across energy, telecom, and retail gives it multiple levers for growth, and performance over the next two quarters will depend on execution of its investments and cash flow recovery.

Having said that, Q2 results will be an interesting watch to gauge for the company's standing in its new growth areas as well as its old powerhouses. Here are 10 things to track.

Also Read: Reliance Industries Q2 results preview: O2C, Jio to power 11% profit growth; retail seen lagging

Consolidated profit growth

Analysts expect an 11% year-on-year (YoY) rise in net profit to about Rs 18,000 crore, supported by oil-to-chemicals (O2C) and Jio. Excluding one-off gains from Q1, profit growth could appear stronger in quality terms this quarter.

Revenue performance

Revenue is estimated to grow 7% YoY, though estimates vary widely — from a 2% fall (Nuvama) to a 12% rise (Kotak). Divergence stems from differing views on O2C realizations and festive-season retail demand.

O2C segment

The oil-to-chemicals division remains RIL’s backbone. EBITDA is expected to grow 20% YoY and 3–4% QoQ to around Rs 1.5 lakh crore, driven by higher refining throughput and stronger diesel margins. However, weak petrochemical spreads could offset part of the gains.

Retail business

Retail is expected to post 11–15% YoY EBITDA growth (Rs 64,000–66,000 crore), aided by store additions and early festive buying. But GST cuts on consumer durables in September likely deferred some purchases.

Jio and digital services

Reliance Jio is likely to maintain steady growth, with EBITDA up 2–3% QoQ and 14–17% YoY at around Rs 17,000–18,000 crore. ARPU is seen improving 1% sequentially to Rs 211–212, while subscriber additions could exceed 5 million.

Upstream business (KG-D6)

Oil and gas earnings may stay soft, with output declining slightly due to field maturity. Emkay expects EBITDA of around Rs 4,900 crore, flat sequentially.

Margins and currency effect

A weaker rupee could aid refining margins and export realizations but also increase interest and import costs. Analysts see consolidated EBITDA up 10–13% YoY.

Leverage and cash flow

Investors will closely track free cash flow trends after large capital outlays in new energy, retail, and digital infrastructure. Debt has inched higher, and clarity on monetization timelines for new ventures is awaited.

Strategic triggers: Jio IPO and demergers

Updates on the potential Jio IPO or Reliance Consumer demerger could lift sentiment. Any roadmap on these could act as near-term catalysts for the stock.

Outlook for new energy and data centers

Progress on solar, hydrogen, battery storage, and data center projects will be a key discussion point. Execution timelines and early revenue visibility will determine how soon investors start valuing these in RIL’s sum-of-parts model.

Can the stock rally after Q2?

While Q2 numbers may not immediately trigger a rally, analysts expect sentiment to stabilize if management commentary turns confident on cash flows and project execution. "The next six months could define how investors view Reliance’s transition from an energy major to a consumer-tech and clean energy conglomerate," said Jain.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)